Cost modeling expertise including infrastructure cost estimation, TCO calculation, build vs buy analysis, pricing model comparison, ROI projection, cost growth modeling, and breakeven analysis.
--- name: role-architect-cost-modeling-193d42fc2455 description: | Cost modeling expertise including infrastructure cost estimation, TCO calculation, build vs buy analysis, pricing model comparison, ROI projection, cost growth modeling, and breakeven analysis. allowed-tools: Read, Grep, Glob, Bash --- # Cost Modeling ## When to use - Estimating infrastructure costs before committing to an architecture - Calculating 3-year TCO to compare two architectural approaches or vendors - Deciding whether to build a capability in-house or buy an existing solution - Comparing per-seat, usage-based, flat-rate, and hybrid pricing models for a tool - Projecting ROI on a proposed investment with sensitivity analysis - Modeling how costs will scale as the primary cost driver (users, transactions, data) grows - Performing breakeven analysis for a migration or build-vs-buy decision ## Core principles 1. **Egress is always the surprise** — model data transfer costs separately before everything else 2. **3-year horizon reveals the truth** — build looks cheaper in year 1; maintenance changes that by year 3 3. **Cost per unit, not total cost** — if cost per user is rising, there is a scaling architecture problem 4. **ROI needs a pessimistic scenario** — if the investment goes negative under realistic downside assumptions, it is risky 5. **Opportunity cost belongs in the model** — time spent building is time not spent on revenue features ## Reference Files - `references/estimation-tco-build-vs-buy.md` — compute/storage/network/managed service cost estimation, 5-category 3-year TCO structure (license + infrastructure + operations + training + migration), build vs. buy decision criteria and 3-year quantification, and per-seat/usage-based/flat-rate/hybrid pricing model comparison - `references/roi-growth-breakeven.md` — ROI formula and time-to-ROI calculation, sensitivity analysis (+/- 20% assumptions), linear/sublinear/superlinear cost growth modeling, cost-per-unit trending, cost optimization checkpoint thresholds, and breakeven crossover chart methodology for build-vs-buy and migration decisions--- name: role-architect-cost-modeling-193d42fc2455 description: | Cost modeling expertise including infrastructure cost estimation, TCO calculation, build vs buy analysis, pricing model comparison, ROI projection, cost growth modeling, and breakeven analysis. allowed-tools: Read, Grep, Glob, Bash --- # Cost Modeling ## When to use - Estimating infrastructure costs before committing to an architecture - Calculating 3-year TCO to compare two architectural approaches or vendors - Deciding whether to build a capability in-house or buy an existing solution - Comparing per-seat, usage-based, flat-rate, and hybrid pricing models for a tool - Projecting ROI on a proposed investment with sensitivity analysis - Modeling how costs will scale as the primary cost driver (users, transactions, data) grows - Performing breakeven analysis for a migration or build-vs-buy decision ## Core principles 1. **Egress is always the surprise** — model data transfer costs separately before everything else 2. **3-year horizon reveals the truth** — build looks cheaper in year 1; maintenance changes that by year 3 3. **Cost per unit, not total cost** — if cost per user is rising, there is a scaling architecture problem 4. **ROI needs a pessimistic scenario** — if the investment goes negative under realistic downside assumptions, it is risky 5. **Opportunity cost belongs in the model** — time spent building is time not spent on revenue features ## Reference Files - `references/estimation-tco-build-vs-buy.md` — compute/storage/network/managed service cost estimation, 5-category 3-year TCO structure (license + infrastructure + operations + training + migration), build vs. buy decision criteria and 3-year quantification, and per-seat/usage-based/flat-rate/hybrid pricing model comparison - `references/roi-growth-breakeven.md` — ROI formula and time-to-ROI calculation, sensitivity analysis (+/- 20% assumptions), linear/sublinear/superlinear cost growth modeling, cost-per-unit trending, cost optimization checkpoint thresholds, and breakeven crossover chart methodology for build-vs-buy and migration decisions
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