---
name: manifold-9147fa942686
description: Read and trade on Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect users/bets, place bets/sell/comment). Never place a bet/sell/comment without explicit user confirmation.
homepage: https://manifold.markets
metadata:
  {
    "openclaw":
      {
        "emoji": "🔮",
        "requires": { "bins": ["curl"], "env": ["MANIFOLD_API_KEY"] },
        "primaryEnv": "MANIFOLD_API_KEY",
      },
  }
---

# Manifold Markets

Use this skill to read from Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect public user info) and to place trades/comments with explicit confirmation.

Write actions require `MANIFOLD_API_KEY` (in the environment or configured via OpenClaw skill entries).

Base URL: `https://api.manifold.markets/v0`

Docs: https://docs.manifold.markets/api

## Read tasks

### Search markets

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5"
```

Tip: replace spaces with `+` (or URL-encode). If you have `jq`, format results:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, createdTime, creatorUsername}'
```

### List newest markets

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10"
```

With `jq`:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, closeTime}'
```

### Get market details (by ID)

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"
```

Binary markets usually expose `probability` (0..1). Other market types may not have a single probability field.

### Get market details (by slug)

The slug is the portion of the Manifold URL after the username (e.g. `.../Alice/my-market-slug` → `my-market-slug`).

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/MARKET_SLUG"
```

### Inspect a user (by username)

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
```

### List bets for a user

If you have `jq`:

```bash
USER_ID="$(curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME" | jq -r '.id')"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=$USER_ID&limit=50"
```

Without `jq`, fetch the user JSON and read the `id` field, then use it:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=USER_ID&limit=50"
```

## Write safety rules

- Never place a bet, sell shares, or post a comment unless the user explicitly confirms (e.g. “yes, place it”, “confirm”, “do it”).
- Always fetch the market first and restate: market question, market id/slug, action (bet/sell/comment), side/answer, amount/shares, and any limits.
- If the user is not explicit about amount/side, stop and ask.

## Write tasks

Authentication

- Uses `MANIFOLD_API_KEY` in header: `Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY`
- Set `MANIFOLD_API_KEY` (or `skills.manifold.apiKey` in `~/.openclaw/openclaw.json`).

### Place a bet (binary market)

1. Fetch the market and confirm it’s the right one:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"
```

2. Preview the exact payload you intend to send (do not run the POST until user confirms):

```bash
cat <<'JSON'
{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}
JSON
```

3. After explicit confirmation, place the bet:

```bash
curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bet" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}'
```

Notes:

- `amount` is in Mana (integer).
- `outcome` is `YES` or `NO` for binary markets.
- For non-binary markets, consult the Manifold API docs for the correct payload.

### Sell shares

Preview first (do not run until user confirms).

Sell all shares for an outcome (omit `shares` to sell all):

```bash
curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES"}'
```

Sell a specific number of shares:

```bash
curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES","shares":10}'
```

### Post a comment

Comments made through the API can incur a fee (see Manifold API docs). Always confirm text + target market.

```bash
curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comment" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"contractId":"MARKET_ID","content":"Your comment here."}'
```

## Notes

- Rate limits apply (see Manifold API docs).
- Private/unlisted markets may not be accessible via the public API depending on current platform behavior.


---
Source attribution: kbarbel640-del
Original project: https://github.com/kbarbel640-del/skills/blob/e7e336ac628c3e3bd771aff1aaa469c93778f94a/skills/crotalus/manifold/SKILL.md
License: MIT
License information: https://opensource.org/license/mit
Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Dave AI.

## Upstream license notice

MIT License

Copyright (c) 2026 clawdbot

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
SOFTWARE.



# Dave AI resource metadata

Creator / publisher: kbarbel640-del
Original project: https://github.com/kbarbel640-del/skills/blob/e7e336ac628c3e3bd771aff1aaa469c93778f94a/skills/crotalus/manifold/SKILL.md
Attribution basis: Source repository record

Fields of work: Marketing
Roles: Growth Marketer, Marketing Analyst, Product Marketer
Specialties: API
Tools: OpenAI API, Manifold
Country applicability: Country not specified
Classification basis: Source catalog labels
Instruction SHA-256: 7038529f4c139bae6731d10a15ef485d8d9cd065efe68c45b0f18c6f965ff7c8