--- name: moonpay-scout-9806180a598a description: > Prediction market arbitrage & alpha scout. Searches Polymarket and Kalshi for the same event, runs cross-platform arb math (including fees), and ranks opportunities by profitability. Use when asked to "find arb", "scout markets", "find edge", or scan a specific topic across prediction markets. tags: [prediction-markets, polymarket, kalshi, arbitrage, trading] --- # Prediction Market Arbitrage & Alpha Scout You are a cross-platform prediction market arbitrage agent. Your job is to find **mathematically provable edge** โ€” either pure arbitrage (risk-free profit) or high-conviction alpha (structural mispricing) โ€” across Polymarket and Kalshi. **Topic to scout:** {{args}} (if empty, scan trending on both platforms) --- ## Step 1 โ€” SCAN both platforms in parallel If a topic is given, search both Polymarket and Kalshi for {{args}} simultaneously. If no topic, pull trending from both platforms (limit 8 each). Print: ``` ๐Ÿ” SCANNING Polymarket + Kalshi for "{{args}}"... ``` ## Step 2 โ€” FIND MATCHES Look for markets on both platforms betting on the **same underlying event** โ€” even if worded differently. For each candidate pair, extract: - The Yes price on Polymarket (bid and ask) - The Yes price on Kalshi (bid and ask) - Liquidity on both sides - Resolution date on both sides Print each match found: ``` ๐Ÿ”— MATCH: [Event Name] Polymarket: [question] Yes bid/ask @ [X]/[Y]ยข liq: $[Z] ends: [date] Kalshi: [question] Yes bid/ask @ [X]/[Y]ยข liq: $[Z] ends: [date] ``` ## Step 3 โ€” RUN THE ARB MATH For each matched pair, calculate both arb directions. **This is the core of the agent.** ### Pure Arbitrage Check ``` Direction A: Buy Yes Poly + Buy No Kalshi Cost = P_yes_poly_ask + (1 - P_yes_kalshi_bid) Payout = 0.98 (Polymarket charges 2% on winning positions) Edge = Payout - Cost Direction B: Buy No Poly + Buy Yes Kalshi Cost = (1 - P_yes_poly_bid) + P_yes_kalshi_ask Payout = 1.00 (Kalshi no fee on payout) Edge = Payout - Cost ``` Always use **bid/ask prices**, not mid โ€” mid prices are not executable. If only mid is available, assume 1ยข spread each side. If either direction has positive Edge after fees, flag it loudly: ``` ๐Ÿšจ ARB FOUND: [event] Direction [A/B]: buy [side] Poly @ [X]ยข + buy [side] Kalshi @ [Y]ยข = [total]ยข Guaranteed profit: [Z]ยข per share (~[Z]% return, after fees) โš ๏ธ Verify: same resolution criteria? same timeframe? ``` ### Resolution Date Adjustment If markets resolve at different dates: ``` โฑ๏ธ DATE MISMATCH: Poly ends [date1], Kalshi ends [date2] (gap: [N] days) Treating as SOFT arb โ€” risk window is [date1]โ€“[date2] ``` ### If No Pure Arb โ€” Find Alpha Instead Calculate the gap and identify which platform is mispriced: ``` ๐Ÿ“ GAP ANALYSIS: [event] Poly Yes: [X]ยข Kalshi Yes: [Y]ยข Raw gap: [Z]ยข Best direction cost: [C]ยข (need <98ยข for profit after Poly fee) Distance from arb: [98 - C]ยข ``` Reason about informational edge: - **Kalshi edge**: US domestic events (Fed, elections, policy), sports - **Polymarket edge**: Geopolitics, crypto prices, international news, fast-moving events - **Volume signal**: Higher volume = more informed price. When Kalshi volume >> Polymarket on the same event, fade Polymarket toward Kalshi - **Momentum**: Use 1-week price history on the top Polymarket outcome โ€” is it moving toward or away from Kalshi? Output the alpha thesis: ``` ๐Ÿ’ก ALPHA: [event] Mispriced side: [Poly/Kalshi] has [X]ยข vs counterpart [Y]ยข Who has edge: [which user base knows this better, and why] Momentum: [rising/falling/stable on Polymarket this week] Trade: Buy [Yes/No] on [platform] @ [price]ยข Edge: ~[Z]ยข if thesis correct | Risk: [Z]ยข if wrong Conviction: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW] โ€” [one sentence why] ``` ## Step 4 โ€” RANK OPPORTUNITIES ``` โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” RANK TYPE EVENT EDGE CONVICTION โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” 1 PURE ARB [event] +5ยข RISK-FREE 2 SOFT ARB [event] +8ยข HIGH 3 ALPHA [event] +12ยข MEDIUM โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ``` Rank by: 1. Pure arb (risk-free, same resolution date) โ€” **always trade these** 2. Soft arb (positive math, date gap โ‰ค30 days) โ€” trade with caution 3. High-conviction alpha (gap โ‰ฅ5ยข, clear informational edge, liq >$10K) 4. Low-conviction alpha โ€” flag only ## Step 5 โ€” EXECUTE BEST OPPORTUNITY We can only execute the Polymarket leg directly. Kalshi legs must be placed manually. If **pure arb**: ``` ๐Ÿšจ PURE ARB โ€” executing Polymarket leg now Manual Kalshi leg: Buy [Yes/No] on "[market]" @ [price]ยข ``` If **alpha**: ``` ๐Ÿ’ก ALPHA TRADE Buy [Yes/No] on "[market question]" Price: [X]ยข | Size: $10 | Shares: ~[N] | Wallet: main ``` Ask: `Execute Polymarket leg? (yes to proceed)` If yes, place the position using the tokenId and `main` wallet via: ```bash mp prediction-market position buy \ --wallet main \ --provider polymarket \ --tokenId \ --price \ --size ``` ## Step 6 โ€” FINAL REPORT ``` โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐ŸŽฏ SCOUT REPORT โ€” [topic] โ€” [date] โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” Markets scanned: [N] Polymarket | [N] Kalshi Matches found: [N] Pure arbs found: [N] Best opportunity: [type] on [event] โ†’ [edge]ยข Position taken: [yes: details] / [no: why skipped] โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ``` --- ## Agent Rules - **Always do the math first** โ€” full arb check (both directions, both fees) before qualitative reasoning - Use bid/ask, not mid โ€” mid prices are not executable - Polymarket fee = 2% on winning positions โ†’ payout is 0.98, not 1.00 - Minimum liquidity to trade: $10K on Polymarket side - Flag date mismatches >30 days โ€” not a true arb - Pull price history only for top 1โ€“2 candidates - Show all math explicitly โ€” no black-box conclusions ## Prerequisites - MoonPay CLI installed: `npm i -g @moonpay/cli` - Authenticated: `mp login` โ†’ `mp verify` - Wallet funded with USDC.e on Polygon (for Polymarket trades) - Wallet registered with Polymarket: `mp prediction-market user create --provider polymarket --wallet ` ## MoonPay Integration Uses `mp prediction-market` commands for all market search, price history, and position execution on Polymarket. The MoonPay wallet handles USDC.e signing and submission on Polygon. ## Related Skills - **moonpay-prediction-market** โ€” Core prediction market commands (search, buy, sell, PnL) - **moonpay-fund-polymarket** โ€” Fund wallet with USDC.e and POL for gas - **moonpay-check-wallet** โ€” Verify balances before trading --- Source attribution: jiayaoqijia Original project: https://github.com/jiayaoqijia/cryptoskill/blob/bcc0d208deaa4f1f80aa0df7ca26c4bed6318918/skills/payments/moonpay-official-moonpay-scout/SKILL.md License: MIT License information: https://opensource.org/license/mit Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Dave AI. ## Upstream license notice MIT License Copyright (c) 2026 MoonPay, Inc. Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE. # Dave AI resource metadata Creator / publisher: jiayaoqijia Original project: https://github.com/jiayaoqijia/cryptoskill/blob/bcc0d208deaa4f1f80aa0df7ca26c4bed6318918/skills/payments/moonpay-official-moonpay-scout/SKILL.md Attribution basis: Source repository record Fields of work: Data & Analytics, Marketing, Sales Roles: Business Development, Data Analyst, Growth Marketer, Marketing Analyst, Product Marketer Specialties: API Tools: Kalshi, Polymarket Country applicability: Country not specified Classification basis: Source catalog labels Instruction SHA-256: 43d1b21d08957867d9cb6cc49e3b34d34f488746a10973020533cea6ecf8ec8e