---
name: weather-dde6a82f34a1
description: "Weather betting - NOAA data for Polymarket weather markets"
command: weather
emoji: "🌤️"
gates:
  envs:
    - POLY_API_KEY
---

# Weather Betting

Use NOAA weather forecasts to find edge on Polymarket weather markets.

## Commands

```
/weather scan                              Scan all weather markets for edge
/weather forecast <city>                   Get NOAA forecast for a city
/weather markets                           List active weather markets
/weather edge <market-id>                  Calculate edge for specific market
/weather bet <market-id> <amount>          Execute bet
/weather auto [--threshold 10]             Auto-bet on high-edge markets
/weather history                           View bet history
```

## Examples

```
/weather forecast "New York"
/weather scan
/weather edge abc123
/weather bet abc123 10
/weather auto --threshold 15
```

## How It Works

1. **Fetch NOAA Forecast**: Get official NWS weather data (free, no API key)
2. **Match to Markets**: Find Polymarket weather markets for the same location/date
3. **Calculate Edge**: Compare NOAA probability to market YES price
4. **Bet if Edge**: If NOAA probability differs significantly from market, bet

## Edge Calculation

```
Edge = NOAA Probability - Market Price

Example:
  NOAA says 80% chance of rain in NYC tomorrow
  Polymarket "Will it rain in NYC?" YES price: 0.65 (65%)
  Edge = 80% - 65% = +15% -> Bet YES
```

## Supported Market Types

- **Temperature**: "Will NYC exceed 90°F on Saturday?"
- **Precipitation**: "Will it rain in LA tomorrow?"
- **Snow**: "Will Chicago get 6+ inches of snow?"
- **Record**: "Will Phoenix hit a record high this week?"

## Confidence Levels

- **High**: Edge >= 15%, reliable forecast data
- **Medium**: Edge 10-15%, some uncertainty
- **Low**: Edge 5-10%, more speculative

## Position Sizing

Uses quarter-Kelly criterion for conservative sizing:

```
Bet Size = Bankroll * (Edge / Odds) * 0.25
```

Capped at 10% of bankroll per bet.

## Supported Cities

Major US cities including: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose, Austin, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, Nashville, Detroit, and more.


---
Source attribution: alsk1992
Original project: https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/blob/c930628c47a4a745f497e29035a3b64622f97cc7/src/skills/bundled/weather/SKILL.md
License: MIT
License information: https://opensource.org/license/mit
Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Dave AI.

## Upstream license notice

MIT License

Copyright (c) 2026 alsk1992

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
SOFTWARE.



# Dave AI resource metadata

Creator / publisher: alsk1992
Original project: https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/blob/c930628c47a4a745f497e29035a3b64622f97cc7/src/skills/bundled/weather/SKILL.md
Attribution basis: Source repository record

Fields of work: Marketing
Roles: Growth Marketer, Marketing Analyst, Product Marketer
Specialties: API
Tools: Noaa, Polymarket
Country applicability: United States
Classification basis: Source catalog labels
Instruction SHA-256: bf9df763777c36c831136f871bdae3cc4ef86a2d62edbd31ccef0949229609d2